HSBC Midcap Fund
Everyone quotes one return number — a single lucky draw from history. Here's the honest version: what this fund did across every starting month since 2022, and the actual odds you faced.
of 1-year periods made money
You lost money 15.2% of the time
of the time it beat a fixed deposit
Across 33 real starting months
The Return Spectrum
What ₹1 invested on any month since 2022 actually did, held 1 year.
Each bar groups 1-year periods with a similar return — taller means it happened more often. Hover any bar for the odds.
Worst start
-4%/yr
₹1L → ₹96,000
Typical
22.9%/yr
₹1L → ₹1.23 L
Best start
63.6%/yr
₹1L → ₹1.64 L
₹1 lakh invested once, held 1 year — depending on the month you happened to start.
The honest bit: the headline number is 20.4% a year. But your real 1-year outcome swung anywhere from -4% to 63.6% a year — the day you started mattered as much as the fund you picked.
the deepest fall holders had to sit through along the way. Real returns are never a straight line.
Why one return number lies
Every app shows a fund's return between two dates. Shift those dates by a few months and the number changes completely — a “15% fund” and a “7% fund” can be the exact same scheme, just measured from a different day. That single figure quietly hides how much your starting date decided your outcome.
Reality Check removes the cherry-pick. It replays a lumpsum invested on every month HSBC Midcap Fund has existed and shows the full spread of what actually happened — so you see the real odds you faced, not one flattering snapshot.
How to read your real odds
- The spectrum — each bar groups periods with a similar yearly return; taller bars are the more common outcomes.
- Made money % — how often a period ended above what you invested.
- Beat an FD % — how often it cleared a safe fixed deposit over the same span.
- Worst · Typical · Best — your range, decided by the luck of when you started.
- Hold-for tabs — watch the range tighten as the holding period grows.
How we compute this
We replay a one-time lumpsum invested on the first trading day of every month in this fund's life, using its real daily NAV (deepest available plan, growth option, from 2022). For each holding period we compute the annualised return, whether it ended below the amount invested (a “loss”), and whether it beat a modelled fixed deposit for that span. The spread of all those outcomes is your real odds. This is historical education, not a prediction or a recommendation — past performance never guarantees the future.
Frequently asked questions
What exactly does Reality Check show for HSBC Midcap Fund?+
Instead of a single return figure, it replays a one-time investment made on the first trading day of every month since 2022 and holds each for 1 to 10 years. You get the full distribution of real outcomes — how often you made money, how often you beat a fixed deposit, and the best, typical and worst annualised return you could have got depending on when you started.
What is a rolling return, in plain English?+
A rolling return measures the return over a fixed holding period (say 5 years) from many different starting dates, not just one. It answers "what did people who held this for 5 years typically get?" instead of "what was the return between these two specific dates?" — far more honest, because it doesn't hang on a single lucky or unlucky start.
Why is a single CAGR number misleading?+
A point-to-point CAGR is one draw from history. Shift the start or end date by a few months and it can swing wildly — a fund can advertise a big number simply because its window happened to begin right after a crash. Showing the whole spread of holding-period returns removes that cherry-pick.
What does "beat a fixed deposit X% of the time" mean?+
For every holding period we compare the fund's outcome against a modelled fixed deposit over the same years (using historical FD rates). The percentage is how often the fund ended ahead of that safe benchmark — a plain test of whether taking market risk actually paid off.
Does a low loss percentage mean HSBC Midcap Fund is safe or a good buy?+
No. This is a historical record for education, not a recommendation or a prediction. A period that never lost money in the past can still lose money in the future, and a low loss percentage says nothing about whether this fund suits your goals, risk appetite or time horizon. Past performance never guarantees future results.
How is this different from the returns other apps show?+
Most apps show trailing returns — one figure from a fixed past date to today. Reality Check shows the distribution across every possible start date in the fund's life, plus the odds of a loss and of beating an FD. It's built to reveal risk and range, not to flatter the fund.
How far back does the data go, and is it real?+
It uses real daily NAV — the same official data the fund reports — going back to 2022 for this fund (we use its deepest available history). Nothing here is simulated or projected; every bar is a period that genuinely happened.
Why lumpsum and not SIP?+
A one-time investment gives the cleanest, most honest measure of a holding period's return. A SIP-based version — showing the odds for monthly investing — is on the way.